lauantai 2. toukokuuta 2009

Ja taas, IPCC kertoo faktat viidellä merenpinnan nousussa !

(Kuvassa IPCC:n ennuste vuoteen 2100: 49 cm. Tutkimus kertoo: 9 cm)

Aegean merestä tehty tutkimus ei osoita mitään kiihtynyttä merenpinnan nousua viime vuosina. Tutkimuksen perusteella merenpinta nousee vuoteen 2100 mennessä 9 cm aivan
"perinteisellä" nopeudella,kun IPCC:n arvio on 49 cm.

Tässä ABSTRAKTI tutkimukseen


"The main phase of rapid sea-level rise in the Central Aegean region ended prior to 5500 BP with the sea level being 4–5 m below its present stand. Subsequently, the sea level continued to rise slowly at a rate of 0.9 mm/a towards its present level, but without ever exceeding it. Due to the tectonic stability of the Attico–Cycladic Massif (central Aegean Sea), the rise of sea level within historical times is attributed to eustatic factors, with thermal expansion being the dominant one, followed by residual melting of glaciers and ice-caps. Hence, the current transgressional phase during the last interglacial period has not reached its optimum yet. No signs of accelerated sea-level rise in recent years are detectable from the available data for the Central Aegean region. The estimate of sea-level rise in the Aegean Sea for 2100 AD, on the basis of the Attico–Cycladic curve and presuming that the present trend will persist, is approximately 9 cm, which is significantly lower than the 49 cm, predicted by the IPCC (2001). Thus, any excess of the natural increment (i.e. 9 cm) during the coming decades would be attributed to the Global Climatic Change induced by human activities"

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