maanantai 16. maaliskuuta 2009

IPCC:n ennusteet kvasitiedettä ?

Väittää prof. J.Scott Armstrong:

J.Scott Armstrong
(born March 26, 1937), Ph.D., is Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, where he has been since 1968. Armstrong is involved with forecasting methods, survey research, educational methods, social responsibility, personnel selection, and scientific peer review. His visiting appointments have included positions at the University of Otago [1] and Manchester Business School.

* Armstrong examined the methods used by the IPCC to make "projections." He claims that the IPCC and climate scientists have completely ignored the scientific literature on forecasting principles found in the academic journals Armstrong co-founded. [1] [2] Armstrong wrote:

We also examined the 535 references in Chapter 9. Of these, 17 had titles that suggested the article might be concerned at least in part with forecasting methods. When we inspected the 17 articles, we found that none of them referred to the scientific literature on forecasting methods.
It is difficult to understand how scientific forecasting could be conducted without reference to the research literature on how to make forecasts. One would expect to see empirical justification for the forecasting methods that were used. We concluded that climate forecasts are informed by the modelers’ experience and by their models—but that they are unaided by the application of forecasting principles. (page 1015) [3]

2 kommenttia:

  1. Kööpenhaminan ilmastokokouksen "avainlöydökset"

    ovat nekin vähän IPCC:n metafysikaalisten ja epäonnistuneiden ilmastomallien kaltaisia:

    Copenhagen climate summit - the scientist’s key findings and recommendations:

    Humanity is releasing 50 billion tons of CO2 into the air each year - and this is rising by 2%-3% a year, far faster than scientists had predicted

    Such emissions are already changing the climate, including an increase in the Earth’s temperature, rising sea levels and a rapid melting of the world’s glaciers

    About 40% of humanity’s CO2 emissions are absorbed by the oceans - but these are now acidifying, threatening marine life Global temperature rises could exceed 2C by mid-century, which would cause widespread water shortages and potentially famine

    Every year of delay in cutting greenhouse gas emissions makes it much harder to keep the global temperature rise below 2C

    Delays also raise the risk of crossing tipping points - changes in the Earth’s dynamics that accelerate the warming effects

  2. Dr James Hansen lähtee riehumaan Britanniaan vauhdittaakseen Köpiksen "avainlöydöksiä":

    THE director of a Nasa space laboratory will this week lead thousands of climate change campaigners through Coventry in an extraordinary intervention in British politics.

    James Hansen plans to use Thursday’s Climate Change Day of Action to put pressure on Gordon Brown to wake up to the threat of climate change - by halting the construction of new power stations and the expansion of airports, with schemes such as the third runway at Heathrow.

    The move by a leading American researcher is the highest-profile example to date of the way climate change is politicising scientists.

    It follows last week’s climate science summit in Copenhagen where 2,500 leading climate scientists issued a stark warning to politicians that unless they took drastic action to cut carbon emissions, the world would face “irreversible shifts in climate”.

    They warned that global temperature increases averaging more than 4C were now possible and that human-generated CO2 could also acidify the world’s oceans, wiping out life-forms ranging from tiny plankton to coral reefs.

    Hansen, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said he believed scientists, the people who knew most about climate change, now had a moral obligation to become politically active. He has chosen Coventry to stage Thursday’s protest because it is home to E.ON, the power company that is planning a giant new coal-fired power station at Kingsnorth in Kent.

    Hansen ei siis pahemmin välitä uusista tutkimustuloksista (Scafetta-Willson, korjattu TSI eli auringon suurempi rooli viime vuosisadan globaalissa lämpenemisessä). Siitäkään ei missään yhteydessä mainita (Köpis ja Hesari sekä esim. Malediivit), että globaalit lämpötilat eivät juurikaan ole nousseet tällä vuosikymmenellä. Täytyy pitää yllä näitä CO2:n varaan rakennettuja "Potemkinin kulisseja".