maanantai 16. maaliskuuta 2009
IPCC:n ennusteet kvasitiedettä ?
Väittää prof. J.Scott Armstrong:
J.Scott Armstrong (born March 26, 1937), Ph.D., is Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, where he has been since 1968. Armstrong is involved with forecasting methods, survey research, educational methods, social responsibility, personnel selection, and scientific peer review. His visiting appointments have included positions at the University of Otago  and Manchester Business School.
* Armstrong examined the methods used by the IPCC to make "projections." He claims that the IPCC and climate scientists have completely ignored the scientific literature on forecasting principles found in the academic journals Armstrong co-founded.   Armstrong wrote:
We also examined the 535 references in Chapter 9. Of these, 17 had titles that suggested the article might be concerned at least in part with forecasting methods. When we inspected the 17 articles, we found that none of them referred to the scientific literature on forecasting methods.
It is difficult to understand how scientific forecasting could be conducted without reference to the research literature on how to make forecasts. One would expect to see empirical justification for the forecasting methods that were used. We concluded that climate forecasts are informed by the modelers’ experience and by their models—but that they are unaided by the application of forecasting principles. (page 1015)